Autumn Storms/Severe Weather Discussion

[[TC]►Ras◄]

Didn't know you were that much into weather Saffy I am myself, though not as technical.

We are very likely to get the storm here in Denmark as well, hitting late Monday. We've been watching news about this the past week. If all goes "well" it will be the most severe October storm since 2002.

Here's the low pressure area (Wiki) to the east of the US this morning.



Wind maps from a danish point of view

[Saphira]

Ras... I live for storms ever since i was knee high to a grasshopper lol. My father had a passion for them, i was dragged along as a child to all sort of weather, more so thunderstorms, now its my passion too. As for technical data im a member of err..lots of weather sites, Tom my son has a weather station which feeds out live weather and his data is also used on weather sites.

Now your storm Ras

It can go one of two ways..intensify..downgrade, most probably looking at data for your country its likely to sustain its wind speeds and again the Jet stream is driving it so could even intensify.

[[TC]►BP◄]

You'd be a great weatherwoman, Saphy

[[TC]►Ras◄]

(2013-10-26 18:46)Saphira Wrote:  Ras... I live for storms ever since i was knee high to a grasshopper lol. My father had a passion for them, i was dragged along as a child to all sort of weather, more so thunderstorms, now its my passion too. As for technical data im a member of err..lots of weather sites, Tom my son has a weather station which feeds out live weather and his data is also used on weather sites.

Now your storm Ras

It can go one of two ways..intensify..downgrade, most probably looking at data for your country its likely to sustain its wind speeds and again the Jet stream is driving it so could even intensify.

Thanks for that little analysis I'm pretty excited to see what it turns out like. Still very uncertain how it will hit here although pretty safe to say that some kind of strong winds will hit.

I wonder how much the rain will affect us. No idea how much there's supposed to fall and whether we will have problems with leaves blocking the drains. Many trees are still covered with them due to the warm fall we've had so far.

[Saphira]

Ok one word to say here

Oh!!



Let me explain the above image - Ok as you can see the tightly packed isobars again, but this time the Pressure readings are lower from previous data reading, so what does this mean..Sustained wind speeds could be around 50-60mph and wind gust of around 90mph. This storm is causing us weather freaks a real headache to say the least, the last 4 hourly ensemble charts are what we all now need to see only then will the most accurate forecasting can be given.

This storm is intensify rapidly this could mean the south are in for one hell of a battering OR it will intensify to quickly and wind speeds will drop before they reach us. Likelihood of that are slim though as data showing signs of slowing and rapidly intensifying.

Forum statistics in which im a member of below LOL!!!

486 user(s) are reading this topic

[Luke.]

Oh dear.. Will most definately be in the middle of this, hope everyone stays safe

[Saphira]

I am watching all the model predictions between now and tomorrow evening but only to see if the system severity and its track is trending one way or another.
Its ultimate/exact path will not even start to become apparent until some way after then. Am seriously hoping it will shift further south and head more into English Channel.

Edit @ 20.32 -More data just in -

[Josh]

I'm looking forward to a mental winter. Wellies and full waterproofs already in the car.

[SLiiDE]

I can tell the wind is already beginning to pick up. Kinda excited for a storm, but I'm not looking forward to the possibility of power going out for a while.

[Sinoco]

Please stay safe guys! Oh and if you can, enjoy the storm.

[Luke.]

Urgh, from that picture seems like it's going to strike quite wildly over my area unless it changes direction any time soon, just been outside pumping up tyres and nearly got blown away haha.

[Tom]

This is the most recent update of the storm from me and team of forecasters, it has began to slow down slightly..


A slight downgrade is showing on the computer models compared to yesterday, and whilst there will still be some extremely strong winds, it now looks as though 100mph is unlikely to be reached.

The wind (and rain) will start to increase after 9pm with gusts reaching 50 or 60mph by midnight.
By the early hours of Monday morning we will see a rapid increase in wind strength with gusts approaching 70mph.

Between 2am and 5am a cold front will come through bringing some much heavier rainfall and as this heavier rainfall arrives the winds will start to gust up to 80mph, possibly higher in a few spots (we still aren't ruling out a few 90mph gusts)
After the rain band clears, the wind will veer from SSW to WSW and for a short while it will become less strong.

By 7am some showers will be developing and running in off the English Channel and as these showers hit the winds may temporarily increase again with 70mph gusts possible.

The rest of the day will be windy with gusts around 40mph but in any showers the winds are still likely to gust to 60mph or 70mph temporarily

i only made a pic for the isle of wight because its a isle of wight weather page lol but theses winds still stand for open and rural areas in the south of england

[[TC]►Ras◄]

Forecasts for Denmark today says there'll most likely be gusts of hurricane strength where it's going to be worst.

Big bridges like the Great Belt Bridge and the Öresund Bridge is at high risk of getting shut down due to them getting hit with even stronger winds due to their height.

Danish meteorologists call this storm-Low an atmospheric bomb due to it developing from 994 hPa today at 14:00 to 967 hPa tomorrow same time, which is a 27 hPa drop and that's quite a bit.

Can be hard to see, but left is today and right is tomorrow


Recent forecast


I live just under the purple/pink area which is the area that will have the strongest winds.

Almost entire country covered in warnings from the national weather service: >Link<

[Cola]

Thanks, I'll let the motorbike stay in the garage tomorrow then, and take the train to school.

[[TC]►Ras◄]

(2013-10-27 21:25)Cola Wrote:  Thanks, I'll let the motorbike stay in the garage tomorrow then, and take the train to school.

Could definitely turn out to be a very windy experience to drive it tomorrow

[Saphira]

92mph gusts reported at Needles, from the official Met Office Twitter feed.

Edit at 01.39am

Confirmed report; Gusts of 93mph (Needles isle of wight).

Edit at 01.47am - The centre of the Low has just past Cornwall and slightly intensified. Going to be a sleepless night for many as worst yet to come for southerners.


Getting absolutely battered here.

[[TC]►Ras◄]

Ouch that exceeds hurricane speed by far.

Few gif's

[Saphira]

Confirmed report; Gusts of 93.15 mph at 02.00am (Needles isle of wight). Lights are flickering constantly now.

[SLiiDE]

This thread, and reddit, have been my top sources for information I don't understand. for that I am grateful.

Edit -

Found a few Live cams of various places

Bognor Regis (wherever that Is)

Portsmouth

Oxford

[Saphira]

Bognor Regis is just south of the Isle of Wight