Autumn Storms/Severe Weather Discussion

[Saphira]

(2013-10-26 11:01)Jedi Wrote:  Well the strong winds and rain we had this week probably came from Uk. The targets blew over and crushed about 15 arrows in the archery club. Was interesting shooting in the rain and wind.

That was Low Lorenzo that caused your strong winds.

Update @ 12.51

Storm Christian has now developed closed circulation in the Atlantic and is now currently racing across Eastwards at over 80mph under the influence of a powerful Atlantic jet-stream. It is now widely expected that Storm Christian will cause some significant damage to the UK over the next 48 hours. There are three main concerns regarding this system.

The first is the amount of rainfall which Christian will dump across Southern parts of the UK. South-west England can expect up to 75mm of rain (3 Inches) whilst Southern England can expect up to 50mm (2 Inches) of rainfall during Sunday evening and overnight into Monday morning. This is likely to cause local flooding in itself, but add on the rapid leaf fall and this only serves to inflame the situation.

The second is the wind. The strongest of the winds are expected to push across Southern England during the early part of Monday and into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 40-50mph inland and 50-70mph along coastal locations are expected. Gust speeds will increase dramatically during the day and push East along Southern areas. Inland gusts of 60-80mph can be expected across Southern and later Eastern areas.

The third is the compounding effect of trees still in leaf, recent heavy rain with saturated ground and the timing of the system.

Is it fair to say..the hardest part to forecast at this stage with any accuracy will be developments as the LP is directly above our shores? In terms of strength etc - Obviously it's track will be vital in all of this too. As mentioned already, the 'sting' in the proverbial tail could well be over more (flatter..) E/NE parts as the likelihood of it entering the North Sea are increasing... It is here where much colder air masses shall be stoking this beast further..


Latest data readings that i just got are below -



Now this is impressive, again data just in..The storm surge! For Monday morning 30 to 32ft to the South West of England and 20 to 25ft in the English Channel.