Malaysia Airlines Plane 'Crashes In Vietnam'

[Mr. NB]

Long summary from http://www.airliners.net/:

Spoiler (Click to View)

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums...n/6025843/ - Post 66 (rcair1)

Sanity Check

• Doing this as much to keep my brain aligned as to provide a data source.
• The facts have not changed much, however the is more data about track and time-line
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short.

First a synopsis

• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off(See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are 2 paths the aircraft could have taken
• Path one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Path two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north path and light over the south path.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.

ACARS

• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.

ACARS data from MH370

• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• There seems to be disagreement on if the ACARS was switched off, or if it was not expected to send more data.
• The Malaysian PM stated they had high confidence ACARS was turned off.
• But, Rolls Royce has not commented on if more ACARS reports would have been expected prior to landing.
• Turning off ACARS reportedly requires entering the EE bay which is not simple in flight.
• UPDATE per TriStarSteve,26, 186:Pilots can deselect ACARS transmission by VHF and SATCOM. This does not turn off the VHF and SATCOM, just stops ACARS from using them.
• The ACARS report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• UPDATE: Per the RR webpage a snapshot would be expected at takeoff, climb, cruise and summary post landing.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS was turned off, or the a/c did not land. It is not clear to me if the last report was climb or cruise.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM

• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat satellites.

SATCOM Pings

• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible routes have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data

• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Way-point Tracks

• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive

• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Lithium Battery Fires

• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Search Areas

• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two tracks predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north route is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Conspiracy Theories

• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.

Mobile phones

• We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.

I've deleted the sections on incompetence and false sitings - for brevity.

In summary what we know is.

• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.

• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.

That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1

[◄Chuck►]

Interesting that the last verbal contact was after the ACARS been shut down.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/...ht.html?hp

[◄Chuck►]

Ah well scratch that. That was yet another mis-information given out. I can't help thinking the Malaysian officials are either deliberately sabotaging the search or are simply retarded.

[[TC] Brad]

It seems now they are just providing theories or snippets of unverified information to divert attention away from the fact that they have no new, factual, information since the plane was lost.

[Blade3562]

I hate the "news" for reasons like this but after learning some more facts I feel like the plane was "stolen"

This military airport is in the Indian Ocean and very well in reach of fuel capacity from the time the locators transponders etc were turned off. What for or why I don't know. Black market 777 parts? Maybe for a later use by a government? But this is the most likely place it will be if it didn't go down.

https://www.google.com/maps?t=h&ll=-7.29...ic&dg=ntvb

[◄Chuck►]

Black market? Hardly. Who would be the customer? I figure you can't put those things on Ebay either. If it were the pilots or other hijackers, it bet on spiritual lunacy. The cause for at least 80% of all grief on earth.

[Blade3562]

Hard to explain but startup companies in developing countries don't really care where parts come from. Heck some American plane companies are nuts lol but this being the case is just one of those slim odds just to make ya think

[◄Chuck►]

Thats a weather balloon according to the official USAF Aircraft identification chart:
http://crossedcrocodiles.files.wordpress...aftid.jpeg

[Mr. NB]

Malayisan PM: "Flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean"

http://www.3news.co.nz/Malaysia-Airlines...fault.aspx

[◄Chuck►]

Well, that's what everyone knew already. Where else would it have gone?
However, what I'm still waiting for is some actual confirmation on the debris. They all found something, but it's still not sure that this are leftovers from that particular plane.
I'm also wondering why none of them were able to provide even a single image from any of the debris yet. Shouldn't be that hard to take a freaking Polaroid on the plane.

[Makee]

Rest in pieces plane.

[[TC]»Pete«]

(2014-03-24 17:48)Chuck Wrote:  [...]
Where else would it have gone?
[...]

[RedJohn]

Indian ocean ? Wasn't it heading Beijing ?

[Blade3562]

Anyone else hear about the 20 souls on board who were working for an aircraft cloaking company?!

[Makee]

(2014-03-25 11:18)RedJohn Wrote:  Indian ocean ? Wasn't it heading Beijing ?

Yeh but they shut down radar and turned wrong way.

[[TC]►Bez◄]

Confirmed crash in Southen Indian ocean using Inmarsat.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26720772

[Blade3562]

Still not a definite location...All this "news" is getting old

[Johan.]

Tbh I still think that they haven't found the plain yet, also that they will probably never find the plane. There aren't even pictures of the wreck yet, I think that if they found the plane, they would've had photo's for sure.

[SO•Audiojack]

If it's laying on the seabed in 3 million pieces, I doubt they will release many photos...

[◄Chuck►]

But there has to be at least one actual piece of evidence, no matter how small the pieces are. Many mechanical parts on those planes have unique IDs on them, which could easily prove it was that plane. Or just even a piece of luggage .